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GTAP Resource #4769

"Can International Migration Accelerate Development? A Global Dynamic General Equilibrium Analysis"
by Ahmed, S. Amer, Delfin S Go and Dirk Willenbockel

Motivation and Policy Background
Policies to facilitate international migration and targets for reductions in remittance costs faced by migrant workers are set to be part of the emerging post-2015 development agenda. This is a recognition of significant linkages between international migration and the achievement of the post-2015 development goals, and is a response to the fact that total remittance flows to developing countries are already a multiple of international development assistance flows. Global demographic shifts over the coming decades are bound to magnify the economic incentives for South-North migration and reinforce the economic case for a reduction of existing barriers to international labor mobility. The domestic labor supply has already peaked in high-income countries as a whole. It is set to decline steadily over coming decades while hundreds of millions of new workers are projected to enter the labor force by 2030 in developing countries as a group. Moreover, given the considerable variety in demographic dynamics and labor productivity levels across developing regions, there is potentially also considerable scope for mutual gains from further South-South migration. Correspondingly, forward-looking assessments of the prospective economic impacts of future changes in policies toward cross-border migration flows deserve a high priority on the global development research agenda.

This study adopts a global dynamic computable general equilibrium simulation approach to provide a regionally differentiated quantitative assessment of the incremental economic benefits resulting from a marginal relaxation of existing restrictions on international migration flows.

Resource Details (Export Citation) GTAP Keywords
Category: 2015 Conference Paper
Status: Published
By/In: Presented at the 18th Annual Conference on Global Economic Analysis, Melbourne, Australia
Date: 2015
Version: 3.0
Created: Willenbockel, D. (4/15/2015)
Updated: Willenbockel, D. (6/14/2015)
Visits: 2,277
- Dynamic modeling
- Migration

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