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GTAP Resource #4772

"A Balanced Global Food Demand and Supply in 2050: How can we meet the challenge?"
by Brockmeier, Martina, Soren Frandsen, Ryan Gorman, Hans Grinsted Jensen, Vladimir Korovin and Kirsten Boysen-Urban

Poverty and hunger remain enormous problems in spite of a remarkable progress in the perfor-mance of the global food system over the last 50 years. Still among 1 billion people around the world are hungry and 1 billion people live on just $1.25 per day. This challenge of global food security and the risk of a rising global food wedge between human needs and global food pro-duction is in spite of technological advances expected to increase significantly towards 2050 – unless significant changes in present food demand trends food production pattern and produc-tivity and overall productivity and capacity of the world food system do take place in the com-ing years. Will the world actually be able to meet the global food challenge in 2050?

The underlying and emerging trends and driving forces affecting global food security include the well-known factors of
- economic growth and urbanisation and the significant increases in food demand and diet shifts,
- demographic shifts in terms of population growth, aging, and rural labour shortages,
- increased market concentration and globalisation of processing, distribution and retailing,
- sweeping technological change ,
- degradation of natural resources and increasing water scarcity
- rising energy prices and climate change.

Crude calculations estimate that the global food demand will increase from 70-100 percent of current production leading to a significant and increasing global food wedge seriously challeng-ing the global food security on our road to 2050 (e.g., according to Keating et al. (2014) a deficit of some 127x1015kcal).

This paper will by way of the tailor-made global economic model estimate the global food wedge in 2050 based upon a number of assumptions relating to the underlying trends and driv-ing forces mentioned above. By way of a few illustrative examples, targeted prospected path-ways to balance global food demand and supply in 2050 will be presented and discuss...

Resource Details (Export Citation) GTAP Keywords
Category: Econometric Application
Status: Not published
Date: 2015
Created: Brockmeier, M. (4/15/2015)
Updated: Batta, G. (6/24/2015)
Visits: 2,841
- Baseline development
- Model validation and sensitivity analysis
- Food prices and food security
- Other data bases and data issues

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