Resource Center

Advanced Search
Technical Papers
Working Papers
Research Memoranda
GTAP-L Mailing List
GTAP FAQs
CGE Books/Articles
Important References
Submit New Resource

GTAP Resources: Resource Display

GTAP Resource #5562

"Long run trends in international trade. The impact of new technologies"
by Bekkers, Eddy, Bob Koopman and Robert Teh


Abstract
We use the WTO Global Trade Model (GTM) to generate long-term projections on international trade and examine the potential impact of the development of digital technologies on trade. The GTM is a recursive dynamic CGE-model featuring imperfect competition, the integration of margin activities in private consumption, and baseline projections based on macroeconomic projections of the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP). We examine the potential impact of expected changes in technology, focusing on trends such as robotization, big data and artificial intelligence, additive technology (3D printing), and e-commerce. Robotization is expected to change the factor intensity of production thus affecting the pattern of international specialization (reshoring). 3D printing could have large effects for the size and pattern of international trade, leading to a shift away from trade in physical goods to digital trade. And E-commerce will reduce trade costs and raise productivity in retail sectors. We model these trends and evaluate their potential impacts.


Resource Details (Export Citation) GTAP Keywords
Category: 2018 Conference Paper
Status: Published
By/In: Presented at the 21st Annual Conference on Global Economic Analysis, Cartagena, Colombia
Date: 2018
Version:
Created: Bekkers, E. (4/15/2018)
Updated: Bekkers, E. (4/15/2018)
Visits: 3,598
- Baseline development
- Dynamic modeling
- Technological change
- Not Applicable


Attachments
If you have trouble accessing any of the attachments below due to disability, please contact the authors listed above.


Public Access
  File format GTAP Resource 5562  (775.3 KB)   Replicated: 0 time(s)


Restricted Access
No documents have been attached.


Special Instructions
No instructions have been specified.


Comments (0 posted)
You must log in before entering comments.

No comments have been posted.