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GTAP Resources: Resource Display

GTAP Resource #7146

"Impact of ongoing conflict and pathways to recovery in Sudan: agricultural bounce-back, infrastructural investment and social protection "
by Siddig, Khalid, James Thurlow, Mosab Ahmed, Josée Randriamamonjy and Mariam Raouf


Abstract
In response to the 2023 conflict in Sudan and its extensive socio-economic repercussions, this study investigates the resultant economic, poverty, and undernourishment impacts, using an economywide model for in-depth analysis at national and household levels. It also aims to identify effective recovery pathways that can mitigate the adverse impacts of the conflict, with a particular focus on the role of the agricultural sector. Key findings reveal significant economic contractions across all scenarios, with the GDP experiencing a reduction of up to 12% and 18% in the World Bank and IMF war scenarios in 2023. Poverty rates are projected to increase by 8 and 11.6 percentage points, affecting an additional 2.7 and 3.9 million people in the two scenarios, respectively. Undernourishment is also expected to rise signifi-cantly, with an increase of 3.9 and 6.0 percentage points, adding approximately 1.3 and 2.0 million peo-ple to those affected in the two scenarios, respectively. The analysis proposes recovery strategies that emphasize agricultural productivity, infrastructure investment, and social protection measures. By simulating enhanced agricultural productivity scenarios, the study suggests that poverty could decrease no-tably, with potential reductions in the poor population by as much as 1.9 million by 2028. This study un-derscores the urgency of coordinated policy efforts and international support to mitigate the adverse im-pacts of the conflict, providing a strategic roadmap for recovery initiatives aimed at sustainable devel-opment and stability in Sudan.


Resource Details (Export Citation) GTAP Keywords
Category: 2024 Conference Paper
Status: Not published
By/In: Presented during the 27th Annual Conference on Global Economic Analysis (Fort Collins, Colorado, USA)
Date: 2024
Version: Draft 1
Created: Thurlow, J. (4/5/2024)
Updated: Siddig, K. (4/15/2024)
Visits: 64
- Agricultural policies
- Economic analysis of poverty
- Economic crisis
- Economic growth
- Foreign direct investment
- Dynamic modeling
- Africa (East)
- Africa (North)
- Middle East


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