GTAP Resources: Resource Display
| GTAP Resource #7170 |
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"Potential impact of import shift from soybean to meat on Chinas food security" by Wang, Rongbo, Wusheng Yu, Cao Lijuan and Jing Zhu Abstract Abstract:Importing agricultural products plays a critical role in supplementing China's food supply, with soybeans being the foremost import. Nevertheless, China's heavy reliance on the international soybean market primarily supports the development of its domestic livestock and poultry industry to meet the increasing demand for animal-based foods, such as meat, among its residents. This paper aims to explore the potential impact of shifting imports from soybeans to meat on China's food security. We employ the GTAP model to assess the impact of reducing tariffs and adjustments of non-tariff measures on meat, analyzing its effects on food trade structure, domestic production, and consumption. The preliminary results indicate that: (1) Expanding meat imports will alter the variety structure of agricultural product imports in China, increasing its dependence on the international meat market. This substitution effect will reduce the demand for grain imports, particularly soybeans and corn, and correspondingly improve their self-sufficiency rate. (2) The expansion of meat imports could potentially alter China's crop production structure, resulting in decreased cultivation and output of feed crops like corn, and an increase in the cultivation and output of rice, soybeans, fruits, and vegetables. (3) The increase in meat imports has the potential to lower domestic food prices, thereby decreasing the cost of food consumption for residents and encouraging an uptick in food consumption, with a particular emphasis on meat products. (4) Although increasing meat imports may reduce the added value of China's upstream and downstream livestock and poultry industries, its overall impact on the country's industrial added value is limited. The study concludes by advocating for integrated grain and meat import strategies, refining meat import policies, and enhancing food security through diversified imports. |
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- Agricultural policies - Food prices and food security - Non-Tariff barriers - Asia (East) |
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Public Access  Paper (143.8 KB) Replicated: 0 time(s)Restricted Access No documents have been attached. Special Instructions No instructions have been specified. |
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Last Modified: 9/15/2023 2:05:45 PM
