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GTAP Resource #7183

"Evaluating the Economic and Socioeconomic Impacts of Labor Heat Stress in Brazil: A Multiscale Approach"
by Simonato, Thiago, Iman Haqiqi, Uris Lantz Baldos and Thomas Hertel

This research investigates the socioeconomic and labor market consequences of heat stress, focusing on regional and sectoral disparities, using Brazil as a case study. We adopt a novel approach by integrating regional modeling into the global context, thereby capturing the intricate effects of heat stress at both regional and local levels. Our analysis reveals a troubling trend of exacerbated regional and socioeconomic inequalities due to climate impacts.

Employing a coupled methodology that merges the regional TERM model and the global GTAP version 7, we analyze the interplay between local impacts and global feedback effects through international trade channels. The comprehensive model includes 27 global production sectors, 19 global regions, 30 Brazilian sectors, 5570 Brazilian regions, and detailed labor market demographic data. We utilize CMIP6 data with high spatial resolution, incorporating 14 climate models and 3 warming scenarios, to assess the loss of labor productivity in different occupational settings.
Preliminary results indicate a decline in Brazilian international trade, especially in the agricultural sector, and an intensification of domestic economic disparities. Regions reliant on agriculture, such as the North and Northeast of Brazil, are most affected. Socioeconomically, vulnerable populations with lower income and education levels experience heightened impacts, including increased living costs and a shift towards informal employment. This leads to decreased consumption and marginalization from labor social security mechanisms.

Our study underscores the importance of understanding the complex relationship between climate change, labor markets, and socioeconomic inequalities. By examining the nuances of workforce vulnerability and regional disparities, we contribute to the global narrative on climate impacts and foster discussions on strategies to balance environmental concerns with social equity.

Resource Details (Export Citation) GTAP Keywords
Category: Other CGE Application
Status: Not published
Date: 2024
Created: Simonato, T. (4/11/2024)
Updated: Batta, G. (5/10/2024)
Visits: 136
- Climate change policy
- Climate impacts
- Demographics
- Education
- Labor market issues
- Model extension/development
- Model integration and coupling
- Multi-scale and geospatial modeling
- South America

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