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GTAP Resource #7242

"Unlocking India's Export Opportunities in ASEAN: Insights from GTAP Model and Viner’s Trade Creation Methodology"
by Dawani, Chandni and Badri Narayanan

ASEAN is an important trading partner for India. In this paper, we use the version 11 of the GTAP database and the GTAP modelling framework to study the impact of India-ASEAN tariff liberalisation on important macroeconomic variables such as output, employment, and welfare of the economies of India and the ASEAN member countries. The impact of trade liberalization on trade structure and bilateral trade between India and ASEAN members is also studied, through simulating a scenario of full liberalization (implying complete elimination of all tariffs between India and the ASEAN region) in order to place an upper limit on the gains that might be achieved through the FTA. The paper reveals that full trade liberalisation is expected to increase India’s trade with ASEAN countries particularly Vietnam, Cambodia, Philippines, Thailand, and Indonesia, boosting both exports and imports. India also experiences substantial welfare gain, primarily attributable to the endowment effect. In the ASEAN region, Indonesia, Vietnam and Thailand show positive welfare gains with the largest gain accruing to Indonesia. The smaller countries also enjoy positive welfare gains except the Lao People’s Democratic Republic and the rest of ASEAN. The paper further assesses India's export competitiveness in the ASEAN market at the sectoral level, utilizing Viner's trade creation approach, which focuses on price competitiveness at the HS 6-digit level. The analysis identified five most significant trading partners in the region (Singapore, Thailand, Malaysia, Vietnam, Indonesia) which represent substantial trading opportunities in the five broad sectors (Machinery, Chemical products, Base metals, Plastics, Minerals).

Resource Details (Export Citation) GTAP Keywords
Category: 2024 Conference Paper
Status: Not published
By/In: Presented during the 27th Annual Conference on Global Economic Analysis (Fort Collins, Colorado, USA)
Date: 2024
Created: Dawani, C. (4/14/2024)
Updated: Batta, G. (5/2/2024)
Visits: 82
- Preferential trading arrangements
- Asia (Southeast)

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