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GTAP Resource #7323

"Implications of the 30x30 biodiversity conservation targets: quantifying uncertainty in local and global food system projections"
by Haqiqi, Iman, Jonathan Doelman, Thomas Hertel, Elke Stehfest and Hermen Luchtenbelt

This manuscript briefly describes methods used to examine the potential implications of the 30x30 biodiversity conservation targets for local and global food systems. These targets call for protecting 30% of the Earth's land and ocean resources by 2030. There are concerns about the likely impact of implementing these targets on food prices, food security, and spillover to other locations. We developed a gridded economic model to quantify the complex interactions between land-use changes driven by 30x30 and global food security. Our analysis focuses on the critical uncertainties arising from different implementations of land supply elasticities and land use specification, a key factor influencing land-use change dynamics in future scenarios. We examine these variations across global, regional, and local (grid cell) scales. Preliminary findings suggest land supply elasticities significantly influence the magnitude and geographic distribution of potential spillover effects, highlighting the importance of considering these uncertainties when evaluating the overall impact on food systems. This study sheds light on possible unintended consequences associated with 30x30 implementation, urging careful consideration of land-use change dynamics during policy development.

Resource Details (Export Citation) GTAP Keywords
Category: 2024 Conference Paper
Status: Not published
By/In: Presented during the 27th Annual Conference on Global Economic Analysis (Fort Collins, Colorado, USA)
Date: 2024
Version: 1
Created: Haqiqi, I. (4/15/2024)
Updated: Haqiqi, I. (4/15/2024)
Visits: 181
- Ecosystem services and biodiversity
- Environmental policies
- Land use
- Sustainable development
- Economic geography
- Advances in quantitative methods
- Model validation and sensitivity analysis
- Multi-scale and geospatial modeling
- Partial and general equilibrium models
- Global

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