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GTAP Resource #7343

"Ex-Post Model Validation Assessment in the Wake of the Ukraine Conflict: Learning Lessons and Reflections"
by Adenauer, Marcel, Shawn Arita, Jason Grant, Maros Ivanic, Nicolas Legrand and Wyatt Thompson

February 24th, 2022 marked a watershed moment for global agricultural markets after Russian military forces invaded Ukraine. Setting aside the profound human consequences, this paper draws lessons about global commodity market representations from this extreme shock. Whereas applied economists often struggle with the endogeneity of market data due to the underlying quantity and price interactions, the loss of global supplies as armies marched over a key producing region represents an extreme external shock. We use a selection of frequently used models of global agricultural markets to simulate these impacts and compare them to actual events. The comparison is naturally unfair: the initial expectations about the war’s impacts that drove supply-side decisions proved incorrect; annual models cannot reasonably be expected to capture the exact outcomes of a shock that starts mid-year; and there were, as always, a multitude of concurrent weather, policy, and other shocks to the market that confound the war’s impacts. However, the examination, nevertheless, offers the opportunity for learning lessons and reflections. First, it provides one benchmark to draw upon in terms of the war’s impact on agricultural markets within the context of other factors. Second, it is useful to see under what dimensions the different models were consistent with how agricultural markets changed. Finally, this exploration of impacts helps readers consider how these models work and their contributions to decision making.

Resource Details (Export Citation) GTAP Keywords
Category: 2024 Conference Paper
Status: Not published
By/In: Presented during the 27th Annual Conference on Global Economic Analysis (Fort Collins, Colorado, USA)
Date: 2024
Created: Adenauer, M. (4/15/2024)
Updated: Adenauer, M. (4/15/2024)
Visits: 85
- Model validation and sensitivity analysis
- Partial and general equilibrium models
- Europe (Eastern)

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