GTAP Resources: Resource Display
| GTAP Resource #7526 |
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"Irrigation as Climate Change Adaptation Strategy: A CGE Analysis for Tanzania" by Msafiri, Mgeni, Victor Nechifor, Andrea El Meligi, Amsalu Woldie Yalew and Asiya Maskaeva Abstract This study aims to analyze the economy-wide impacts of crop yield changes due to climate change in Tanzania. It also assesses the extent to which irrigation can boost or sustain crop productivity in the face of climate change. The study employs a single-country static computable general equilibrium model, DEMETRA, calibrated on the 2015 Tanzania SAM. It disaggregates land use for both irrigated and rain-fed crops. The crops sub-sector accounted for an average of 15.3% of the output from 2015 to 2023 and employs approximately 66% of the labor force, primarily in rural areas. Thus, climate variability poses significant challenges to the Tanzanian economy. This is substantiated by the simulation results of this study, which indicate a decline in real GDP by 0.33% and 0.58% for mild (under the RCP2.6 emission scenario) and severe (under the RCP8.5 scenario) climate change scenarios, respectively. The decline is driven by lower investments due to constrained domestic and export demand as reduced yields elevate domestic prices. Lower crop yields from climate change diminish crop production, particularly for coffee, oilseeds, oleaginous fruits, and rice. This contributes to the overall reduction in crop output in the most productive regions for these crops, including Dodoma, Mbeya, Lindi, Katavi, and Simiyu. Households’ welfare is also adversely affected, as incomes decline while food prices rise, especially in urban areas. The reduction in household income is primarily due to a decrease in returns on capital, particularly in the cash crops sector, which is relatively capital-intensive. |
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- Climate change policy - Climate impacts - Water availability - Other data bases and data issues - Agricultural policies - Economic development - Economic growth - Dynamic modeling - Model extension/development - Africa (East) |
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Public Access  Paper (363.8 KB) Replicated: 0 time(s)Restricted Access No documents have been attached. Special Instructions This is a preliminary draft, please do not cite |
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Last Modified: 9/15/2023 2:05:45 PM
