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GTAP Resources: Resource Display

GTAP Resource #80

"Expanding 'Fortress Europe' Implications of European Enlargement for Non-Member Regions"
by Frandsen, Soren, Hans Grinsted Jensen and David Vanzetti

The enlargement of the European Union (EU) to include several Central and Eastern European countries has led to speculation concerning its potential impact on particular non-members and the multilateral trading system and world trade in general. With the World Trade Organisation (WTO) taking a greater interest in the nature of regional trade arrangements, the European Union would be keen to show that the trade diversion effects are minimal and that in this and other respects it conforms to WTO requirements. In contrast, non-members would find it in their interest to use the European aspirations for enlargement to push for further trade liberalisation in Europe.

Agriculture is one of the more sensitive sectors, and given the significant discrepancies between current protection levels in the existing and acceding members of the EU, regional integration has the potential to alter trade flows in a number of products. This paper provides a quantitative assessment of the possible impacts of European enlargement on non-member regions. This is done by using the latest GTAP database (version 4) and a modified version of the standard GTAP model. The focus is on the agricultural sector, as this is where the contentious issues arise. Using reasonable assumptions, trade diversion in the various components of the agricultural sector is found to be minimal with relatively insignificant welfare changes in all non-member regions.

Resource Details (Export Citation) GTAP Keywords
Category: GTAP Application
Status: Published
By/In: Revised version published in: The World Economy, Vol. 23, No. 3, March 2000.
Date: 1998
Created: Bacou, M. (9/27/2000)
Updated: Jensen, H. (8/28/2007)
Visits: 2,668
No keywords have been specified.

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